Pierre Gemayel assassiné

La stratégie de tension continue au Liban. Le Ministre de l’Industrie de la République Libanaise, Pierre Gemayel, fils de Amine Gemayel, l’ancien président du Liban, vient d'être assassiné cet après-midi. La rumeur est montée peu a peu, atteignant la rue, les classes de cours, les lieux de travail. Le Liban est le pays des rumeurs, mais celle-ci est malheureusement confirmée. Son convoi a été attaque à Sin el Fil ou Gdeide, les sources variant, dans la proche banlieue de Beyrouth Est ou se trouvent les quartiers chrétiens. L’événement vient d’avoir lieu et il est encore trop tôt que pour tirer la moindre conclusion. Je ne sais pas jusqu’où va mener cette tension politique. Pierre Gemayel faisait partie du Kataeb, parti associe au gouvernement Signora. Quoi que l'on puisse penser de ce parti, cet attentat est tout sauf bon pour le Liban.

Update 23 novembre :

Aujourd'hui, enterrement de Pierre Gemayel et manifestation monstre dans un remake de celle qui a conduit a la fondation du mouvement politique du 14-mars, lui meme traduit en une victoire electorale menant la coalition actuelle au pouvoir.

The same day, three events occured, and it's hard to say if they are linked or not :

• Pierre Gemayel, minister of industry of Lebanon has been assassinated
• The UN, the same night, have given their "go" for the international court judging the murder of Rafic Hariri
• Syria and Irak have re-established their diplomatic relations (after 25(?) years) and Syria have admitted the principle of american troops being based in Irak, while other sources say it could be the beginning of a regional alliance between Syria, Iran and Irak, without the US. I don't believe in that, I believe only in realpolitik. And within this frame, america IS the primary player in Irak.

Syria and Iran have been immediately accused for the murder of Pierre Gemayel by the members of the governing majority. There are arguments and reasons to believe so. I know people who have been living the last few months in Syria, and the opinion there is that the syrian government want, by a way or another, by any possible ways, avoid the international court. This ranges from destabilizing the region, to even reactivate the golan front against Israel (the most peaceful front in the world for more than 3 decades now). That's true there are absolutely no doubts re. the former crimes, that Syria was AT LEAST involved or aware, when looking at the way the impressive bomb attacks were conducted, in a country ruled by the syrian occupier. At the other side, I do not understand what would be the meaning of such an initiative (killing somebody else in the lebanese government) as it only fastens the establishment of the court (see the vote, the same night, at the UN security council). For the last assassination of Pierre Gemayel, there are also troubling facts : the operating modus was different (commando vs. bomb), in the heart of a christian quarter, by 3 men even not covered and who could escape without difficulty while there is a cop every 10 meters in the street.

Yesterday I was in the bekaa, in baalbek, within hezbollah bases. The following is also an opinion shared by left wing members of the communist party and also by supporters of the former general Aoun (christian leader in the opposition). The murder could come from close christian bases close to the majority. The goals are : forcing the international court, and above all, attract "lost souls" aka. the important christian minority following the general Aoun to reintergrate the lebanese forces against Hezbollah and Syria. This scenario is also hard to believe, but it is a possible option.

The third possibility, there are different opinions actually : a mafia "reglement" ; or an operation approved, if not supported, by the united states, not happy to see that an UN mission, mainly lead by France and other european powers, is taking leader ship and is managing to keep peace in the region (it could be dangerous for the american hegemony in the region) : not afraid to threaten Israel if they move and determined in impeaching Hezbollah to re-establish its military presence in the south ; the Hizbullah itself, in order to sthrengten the tension strategy with the goal of forming a national unity government where they would be better represented ; or even, the mossad, Israel not willing a pacified Lebanon.etc... As you can see, Lebanon is still the country of rumours and imagination, more than ever.

Practically, we are not far from a civil war. You just need two factions for that. No need for an hostile divided population as we commonly believe, as if an entire community of one country wanted to fight with the members of another community. We know that Hizbullah is armed, and it seems the Lebanese forces are as well. The lebanese "official" army could not stay as fair as they look like. We will see in the next few days and weeks if there are forces in this country willing to lead it to a civil war again.

(photos : images de la manifestation du 23 novembre sauf la derniere, vue du toit de mon immeuble)